Modelo:

Actualizado:

hourly to monthly from 1980 to last month

Tiempo medio de Greenwich:

12:00 UTC = 13:00 CET

Resolutión:

0.5° x 0.65°

Parámetro:

Maximum wind velocity of convective wind gusts

Descripción:

The method of Ivens (1987) is used by the forecasters at KNMI to predict the maximum wind velocity associated with heavy showers or thunderstorms. The method of Ivens is based on two multiple regression equations that were derived using about 120 summertime cases (April to September) between 1980 and 1983. The upper-air data were derived from the soundings at De Bilt, and observations of thunder by synop stations were used as an indicator of the presence of convection. The regression equations for the maximum wind velocity (w_max ) in m/s according to Ivens (1987) are:

• if T_x - θ_w850 < 9°C

  w_max = 7.66 + 0.653⋅(θ_w850 - θ_w500 ) + 0.976⋅U₈₅₀
  

• if T_x - θ_w850 ≥ 9° C

w_max = 8.17 + 0.473⋅(θ_w850 - θ_w500 ) + (0.174⋅U₈₅₀ + 0.057⋅U₂₅₀)⋅√(T_x - θ_w850)

where

• T_x is the maximum day-time temperature at 2 m in K
• θ_wxxx the potential wet-bulb temperature at xxx hPa in K
• U_xxx the wind velocity at xxx hPa in m/s.

The amount of negative buoyancy, which is estimated in these equations by the difference of the potential wet-bulb temperature at 850 and at 500 hPa, and horizontal wind velocities at one or two fixed altitudes are used to estimate the maximum wind velocity. The effect of precipitation loading is not taken into account by the method of Ivens. (Source: KNMI)

MERRA:

The MERRA time period covers the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present, and the special focus of the atmospheric assimilation is the hydrological cycle. Previous long-term reanalyses of the Earth's climate had high levels of uncertainty in precipitation and inter-annual variability. The GEOS-5 data assimilation system used for MERRA implements Incremental Analysis Updates (IAU) to slowly adjust the model states toward the observed state. The water cycle benefits as unrealistic spin down is minimized. In addition, the model physical parameterizations have been tested and evaluated in a data assimilation context, which also reduces the shock of adjusting the model system. Land surface processes are modeled with the state-of-the-art GEOS-5 Catchment hydrology land surface model. MERRA thus makes significant advances in the representation of the water cycle in reanalyses.

Reanalyse:

Retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate a variety of observing systems with numerical models to produce a temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of observations and analyses of variables not easily observed. The breadth of variables, as well as observational influence, make reanalyses ideal for investigating climate variability. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications supports NASA's Earth science objectives, by applying the state-of-the-art GEOS-5 data assimilation system that includes many modern observing systems (such as EOS) in a climate framework.