Modelo:

Actualização:

2 times per day, from 00:00 and 12:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 13:00 WEST

Resolution:

0.02° x 0.02°

parâmetro:

Precipitation in mm (or litres per square metres)

Descrição:

The precipitation map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modeled precipitation in mm. The precipitation areas are encircled by isohyets - lines with equal amounts of precipitation. However, modeling precipitation is still not very reliable. If you compare the modeled results with observed values you will realize that the model is nothing better than a first order approach. Yet this chart is of some use for forecasters.
Note: Based on international convention meteorologists use the metric system. 100 mm of precipitation is equivalent to roughly 4 inches.

Cluster of Ensemble Members:

20 members of an ensemble run are divided into different clusters which means groups with similar members according to the hierarchical "Ward method" The average surface pressure of all members in each cluster are computed and shown as isobares. The number of members in each cluster determines the probability of the forecast (see percentage)

Dendrograma:

A dendrogram shows the multidimensional distances between objects in a tree-like structure. Objects that are closest in a multidimensional data space are connected by a horizontal line forming a cluster. The distance between a given pair of objects (or clusters) are indicated by the height of the horizontal line. [http://www.statistics4u.info/fundstat_germ/cc_dendrograms]. The greater the distance the bigger the differences.

ICON-D2:

ICON-D2 The ICON dynamical core is a development initiated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) and the Opens external link in current windowGermany Weather Service (DWD). This dynamical core is designed to better tap the potential of new generations of high performance computing, to better represent fluid conservation properties that are increasingly important for modelling the Earth system, to provide a more consistent basis for coupling the atmosphere and ocean and for representing subgrid-scale heterogeneity over land, and to allow regionalization and limited area implementations.

NWP:

A previsão numérica do tempo usa o estado instantâneo da atmosfera como dados de entrada para modelos matemáticos da atmosfera, com vista à previsão do estado do tempo.
Apesar dos primeiros esforços para conseguir prever o tempo tivessem sido dados na década de 1920, foi apenas com o advento da era dos computadores que foi possível realizá-lo em tempo real. A manipulação de grandes conjuntos de dados e a realização de cálculos complexos para o conseguir com uma resolução suficientemente elevada para produzir resultados úteis requer o uso dos supercomputadores mais potentes do mundo. Um conjunto de modelos de previsão, quer à escala global quer à escala regional, são executados para criar previsões do tempo nacionais. O uso de previsões com modelos semelhantes ("model ensembles") ajuda a definir a incerteza da previsão e estender a previsão do tempo bastante mais no futuro, o que não seria possível conseguir de outro modo.

Contribuidores da Wikipédia, "Previsão numérica do tempo," Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre, http://pt.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Previs%C3%A3o_num%C3%A9rica_do_tempo&oldid=17351675 (accessed fevereiro 9, 2010).