Modèle:

Mise à jour:

2 times per day, from 00:00 and 12:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 14:00 CEST

Résolution:

0.02° x 0.02°

Paramètre:

Maximum Temperature at 2 metres above the ground

Description:

This map shows the highest temperature between 6 to 12 and 12 to 18 UTC. Though the modeled 2m-temperature often is not in agreement with the actual observation, together with 1. the temperature at 850 hPa, 2. SYNOP reports 3. and a skillful synoptic meteorologist, excellent Tmax 2m forecasts are possible.

Cluster of Ensemble Members:

20 members of an ensemble run are divided into different clusters which means groups with similar members according to the hierarchical "Ward method" The average surface pressure of all members in each cluster are computed and shown as isobares. The number of members in each cluster determines the probability of the forecast (see percentage)

Dendrogramme:

A dendrogram shows the multidimensional distances between objects in a tree-like structure. Objects that are closest in a multidimensional data space are connected by a horizontal line forming a cluster. The distance between a given pair of objects (or clusters) are indicated by the height of the horizontal line. [http://www.statistics4u.info/fundstat_germ/cc_dendrograms]. The greater the distance the bigger the differences.

ICON-D2:

ICON-D2 The ICON dynamical core is a development initiated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) and the Opens external link in current windowGermany Weather Service (DWD). This dynamical core is designed to better tap the potential of new generations of high performance computing, to better represent fluid conservation properties that are increasingly important for modelling the Earth system, to provide a more consistent basis for coupling the atmosphere and ocean and for representing subgrid-scale heterogeneity over land, and to allow regionalization and limited area implementations.

NWP:

La prévision numérique du temps (PNT) est une application de la météorologie et de l'informatique. Elle repose sur le choix d'équations mathématiques offrant une proche approximation du comportement de l'atmosphère réelle. Ces équations sont ensuite résolues, à l'aide d'un ordinateur, pour obtenir une simulation accélérée des états futurs de l'atmosphère. Le logiciel mettant en œuvre cette simulation est appelé un modèle de prévision numérique du temps.


Prévision numérique du temps. (2009, décembre 12). Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. Page consultée le 20:48, février 9, 2010 à partir de http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pr%C3%A9vision_num%C3%A9rique_du_temps&oldid=47652746.