Modelo:

Actualização:

27 times per day, from 00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00, 21:00 UTC

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 12:00 WET

Resolution:

0.0625° x 0.0625°

parâmetro:

Maximum Temperature at 2 metres above the ground

Descrição:

This map shows the highest temperature between 6 to 12 and 12 to 18 UTC. Though the modeled 2m-temperature often is not in agreement with the actual observation, together with 1. the temperature at 850 hPa, 2. SYNOP reports 3. and a skillful synoptic meteorologist, excellent Tmax 2m forecasts are possible.

Cluster of Ensemble Members:

20 members of an ensemble run are divided into different clusters which means groups with similar members according to the hierarchical "Ward method" The average surface pressure of all members in each cluster are computed and shown as isobares. The number of members in each cluster determines the probability of the forecast (see percentage)

Dendrograma:

A dendrogram shows the multidimensional distances between objects in a tree-like structure. Objects that are closest in a multidimensional data space are connected by a horizontal line forming a cluster. The distance between a given pair of objects (or clusters) are indicated by the height of the horizontal line. [http://www.statistics4u.info/fundstat_germ/cc_dendrograms]. The greater the distance the bigger the differences.

COSMO-DE:

The COSMO-Model is a nonhydrostatic limited-area atmospheric prediction model. It has been designed for both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) and various scientific applications on the meso-β and meso-γ scale. The COSMO-Model is based on the primitive thermo-hydrodynamical equations describing compressible flow in a moist atmosphere. The model equations are formulated in rotated geographical coordinates and a generalized terrain following height coordinate. A variety of physical processes are taken into account by parameterization schemes.
The basic version of the COSMO-Model (formerly known as Lokal Modell (LM)) has been developed at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The COSMO-Model and the triangular mesh global gridpoint model GME form – together with the corresponding data assimilation schemes – the NWP-system at DWD, which is run operationally since end of 1999. The subsequent developments related to the model have been organized within COSMO, the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling. COSMO aims at the improvement, maintenance and operational application of the non-hydrostatic limited-area modelling system, which is now consequently called the COSMO-Model.

NWP:

A previsão numérica do tempo usa o estado instantâneo da atmosfera como dados de entrada para modelos matemáticos da atmosfera, com vista à previsão do estado do tempo.
Apesar dos primeiros esforços para conseguir prever o tempo tivessem sido dados na década de 1920, foi apenas com o advento da era dos computadores que foi possível realizá-lo em tempo real. A manipulação de grandes conjuntos de dados e a realização de cálculos complexos para o conseguir com uma resolução suficientemente elevada para produzir resultados úteis requer o uso dos supercomputadores mais potentes do mundo. Um conjunto de modelos de previsão, quer à escala global quer à escala regional, são executados para criar previsões do tempo nacionais. O uso de previsões com modelos semelhantes ("model ensembles") ajuda a definir a incerteza da previsão e estender a previsão do tempo bastante mais no futuro, o que não seria possível conseguir de outro modo.

Contribuidores da Wikipédia, "Previsão numérica do tempo," Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre, http://pt.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Previs%C3%A3o_num%C3%A9rica_do_tempo&oldid=17351675 (accessed fevereiro 9, 2010).