Opis:

The ThetaW map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled wet bulb potential temperature at the 850hPa level. The theta w (θw) areas are encircled by isotherms - lines connecting locations with equal wet bulb potential temperature. When an air parcel, starting from a certain pressure level, is lifted dry adiabatically until saturation and subsequently is brought to a level of 1000 hPa along a saturated adiabat it reaches what is called the saturated potential wet-bulb temperature: θw. As long as an air parcel undergoes an adiabatisch process, be it either dry or saturated, and in both descending and ascending motions θw does not change. Even when precipitation is evaporating adiabatically θw does not change, therefore θw is "conservative".
An air mass is defined as a quantity of air with a horizontal extent of several hundred or thousand kilometres and a thickness of several kilometres, which is homogeneous in thermal characteristics. Such an air mass may form when air has been over an extensive and homogeneous part of the Earth's surface during a considerable amount of time. This is the so-called source area. In due time, by means of radiative exchange processes and contact with the Earth's surface, an equilibrium develops which is evident from the fact that θw has approximately the same value in the entire air mass both horizontally and vertically, Hence θw can be used to characterise an air mass, with both sensible and latent heat are accounted for.
Depending on possible source areas several main air mass types can be distinguished: polar air (P), midlatitude air (ML) and (sub)tropical air (T). Also, but these are less important arctic air (A) and equatorial air (E). These five main types can be subdivided in continental air (c) and maritime air (m).

Table 1: Characteristic values for θw at 850 hPa (in °C) for various air masses.

Summer		Winter
cA < 7	mA < 9	cA < -5	mA < -7
cP 7 - 12	mP 6 - 12	CP -6 – 2	mP -3 - 5
CML 11 – 16	mML 11 - 16	CML 1 – 8	mML 3 - 9
cT 15 - 19	mT 14 - 19	CT 8 – 14	mT 8 - 16
cE > 17	mE > 18	cE > 14	mE > 16

If the θw distribution is considered on a pressure surface, preferably 850 hPa, then extensive areas with a small or no gradient can be observed. These areas of homogeneous θw values may be associated with air masses. Often various homogeneous areas are separated from one another by relatively narrow transformation zones displaying a strong gradient. Here frontal zones intersect with the pressure surface. Generally speaking a surface front is located where at 850 hPa the 'warm boundary' of the zone with the large θw gradient is present.(Source: Wageningen University)

CFS:

The CFS model is different to any other operational weather forecasting model you will see on Weatheronline.
Developed at the Environmental Modelling Center at NCEP (National Centers for Environment Prediction) in the USA, the CFS became operational in August 2004.
The systems works by taking reanalysis data (NCEP Reanalysis 2) and ocean conditions from GODAS (Global Ocean data Assimilation). Both of these data sets are for the previous day, and so you should be aware that before initialisation the data is already one day old.
Four runs of the model are then made, each with slightly differing starting conditions, and from these a prediction is made.
Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform.
A description of the CFS is given in the following manuscript.
S. Saha, S. Nadiga, C. Thiaw, J. Wang, W. Wang, Q. Zhang, H. M. van den Dool, H.-L. Pan, S. Moorthi, D. Behringer, D. Stokes, M. Pena, S. Lord, G. White, W. Ebisuzaki, P. Peng, P. Xie , 2006 : The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 15, pages 3483.3517.
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

NWP:

Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.

Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).

CFS: The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)